The Treasury yield curve, particularly the yield spread between 2-year notes and 10-year bonds, is one of the better financial indicators.

As such, it provides a useful frame of reference for transitioning existing portfolios to new targets, and selection of bond maturities. This is why we monitor expected Fed Funds rates -- which influence 2-year notes -- on a regular basis. See charts below, which are updated daily.





Non-US central bank interest rates, such as the euro-zone's ECB, also merit attention. The Economist is another good source of global Weekly Indicators.

We believe climate change risks are relevant to investors with 20-30 year investment time horizons -- that is, to most of us. Although not quite useful in their current embryonic form, climate prediction markets are a current area of research. For example, the following chart (updated daily) from Intrade shows the expected probability that the average global temperature for 2010 will be among the five warmest on record.